LeadershipSample research
Deciding under deep uncertainty: what the best executive teams do differently
Scenario thinking matters less than how teams update.
Strategic Management Journal (sample) · Peer-reviewed journal · 13 Oct · 19 min full read
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PARIS summary · 59 words
Following 86 executive teams over five years, this study finds that high performers under uncertainty were distinguished not by better forecasts but by faster, more disciplined belief updating. They pre-committed to signposts that would trigger strategic change and reviewed them on a fixed cadence. Teams that relied on elaborate scenarios without signposts performed no better than those without scenarios.
Why You Should Read This
Demonstration connections Your priorities
Supports the quarterly strategy-review process you describe in your leadership notes.
Context documents
Questions addressed
- Do our strategic bets have explicit signposts?
- Is the review cadence fixed and disciplined?
Practical applications
- Add three explicit signposts to each strategic bet.
- Fix a monthly 30-minute signpost review.
Your assumptions
SupportsSupports the quarterly review process — and suggests adding pre-committed signposts.
Connections are illustrative sample data. Uploaded documents have not been analysed.
Key findings
- 01Pre-committed signposts predicted performance under uncertainty.
- 02Scenario planning alone showed no measurable benefit.
- 03Fixed review cadence mattered more than review depth.
Your notes
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